Strategies of the hottest power generation enterpr

Abstract: grasp the development trend of the power sales market, select key areas where the power sales business is open, strengthen the construction of marketing companies, and explore a business model that "effective coordination of sales, giving play to the sensitivity of detectors will reduce professional advantages and create customer value", which has pathfinding and demonstration significance in the whole enterprise

when the power generation and utilization plan is liberalized to a certain proportion, a forced mechanism will be formed to promote the improvement of the market mechanism; Otherwise, the plan will not be further liberalized. From this point of view, the situation in Guangdong and other places has a good reference value for studying and judging the nationwide market-oriented trend

in order to promote the standardized operation of medium and long-term transactions and accelerate the liberalization of power generation plans, the recent "basic rules for medium and long-term power transactions (Provisional)" and "notice on the orderly release and development of power consumption plan" (hereinafter referred to as "two documents") have been issued successively, marking the transition period of power marketization from the pilot period. Due to the different implementation progress of the two documents in various regions, the marketization process in the transition period appears to be differentiated nationwide: most provinces "liberalize" faster than "regulate", and individual provinces such as Guangdong "liberalize" and "regulate" basically achieve coordinated promotion, representing the future trend. Power generation enterprises need to grasp the mainstream, see the trend and respond effectively

the main contents of the two documents

the two documents have more contents, each with its own emphasis and complement each other. On the whole, five measures were proposed to standardize medium - and long-term transactions, including "unified caliber, coverage of the whole process, disposal deviation, multiple hedging, and connection of spot goods"; According to the framework of "two threads and four aspects", we will promote the liberalization of power generation and utilization plans

regulate medium and long-term transactions

among the five measures, "unified caliber, covering the whole process" focuses on the current, and mainly regulates various practical problems in medium and long-term transactions; "Disposal deviation and multiple hedging" focus on the future to ensure the normal operation of medium and long-term market-oriented transactions when the power generation and utilization plan is liberalized in a large proportion and the spot market has not been completed

"unified caliber" means that all current transaction varieties, including all kinds of market electricity (including market electricity such as cross provincial and regional transactions, direct transactions, power generation rights transactions, etc.), planned electricity (including priority power generation and base electricity), are uniformly included in the scope of medium and long-term transactions, and are uniformly regulated by the basic rules. Before the promulgation of the basic rules, the relevant departments issued a number of single transaction rules. Basically, each rule only considers a certain transaction type, and the "separate editions" are not connected or even inconsistent with each other. "Unified caliber" solves the problem of rule "fighting"

"covering the whole process" refers to that new materials are the basic conditions for improving the material support of military weapons and equipment and military Quartermaster Equipment and improving the degree of informatization. In view of the previous transaction rules, which mainly focus on the organization of transactions, the provisions of other links are relatively principled, and there is a large space for human operation, it details the issues from bilateral negotiation (centralized bidding), contract signing, security verification, scheduling and implementation The procedures of all links in the whole process from measurement and settlement to deviation handling pay more attention to the closed-loop trading and the strict procedures. In particular, it has refined the transaction timing and settlement timing of various varieties, which is conducive to the realization of transaction transparency

"disposal deviation" refers to the market-oriented deviation processing mechanism that adjusts the deviation processing method of "priority settlement of market electricity and rolling adjustment of its implementation deviation by plan" in the pilot stage to "priority generation, priority settlement of base electricity contracts, and processing deviation through pre listing monthly balance". With the gradual increase of the proportion of electricity in the market, its implementation deviation is more and more difficult to "flatten" through the plan, so the former method limits the opening range of planned electricity. For this reason, the basic rules establishes a market-oriented deviation handling mechanism, which can realize the large-scale liberalization of power generation plans in the absence of the spot market

"multiple risk aversion" refers to that under the circumstances that the power generation and consumption plan is liberalized in a large proportion, and users' full electricity enters the market, but the spot market has not been completed, power generation enterprises and users (power selling enterprises) have insufficient means to deal with temporary changes in supply and demand, and the risk of contract execution deviation assessment is high. To this end, three means of contract transfer, mutual insurance agreement and adjustment of the next month's decomposition plan are established, and three time windows of annual, monthly and 3rd (contract transfer) are provided to provide various risk avoidance measures for all entities. The establishment of risk aversion mechanism means that the secondary market of power trading is open, and arbitrage will occur in the market

"connecting spot" refers to that the two documents guide both parties to use the power curve in medium and long-term transactions. The basic rules encourage both parties to agree on the power curve when signing the contract, clarify the contract that gives priority to the protection and implementation of the agreed curve in the safety verification and transaction execution, and stipulate that "if the power generation and consumption curves of both parties in the direct transaction are consistent, the corresponding power will not be allocated the peak shaving auxiliary service compensation fee". The notice further clarified that "we will strive to preliminarily realize the real-time correspondence between the generation and consumption curves of both parties in direct power transactions within two years." The use of power curve is an important link in the transition from planned power distribution to the spot market. The introduction of power generation and consumption curve in advance in medium and long-term transactions is aimed at cultivating the market awareness of market players and special users and preparing for the spot market

electricity release and development plan

"two threads and four aspects" refers to the electricity release and development plan around the two threads of liberalizing prices (including power generation tariffs and user directory tariffs) and reducing planned electricity, specifically from the four aspects of liberalizing coal-fired power generation plans, liberalizing cross provincial power transmission plans, promoting users' entry into the market, and transitioning from power generation plans to priority power generation plans

adopt different ways to release the power generation plan for the stock and incremental coal-fired power units. For the existing units, the utilization hours corresponding to the base electricity will be reduced year by year. This year, the utilization hours will be reduced by 20% on the basis of last year. For incremental units (units approved after the issuance of Document No. 9), power generation plans will not be arranged in principle

from the two dimensions of stock and increment, coal-fired power units and non coal-fired power units, it defines the liberalization of cross provincial and cross regional power transmission plans in four combinations. The principle is that coal-fired power units are regarded as units in the receiving area to participate in the marketization; The preferred generating capacity of non coal-fired units is priced according to the benchmark electricity price of coal-fired units in the power receiving area, and the remaining part will participate in marketization

accelerate the standardized market entry of users. First, expand the scope of user liberalization, reduce the voltage level and power consumption threshold, and new large industrial users should enter the market in principle. Second, require users to enter the market with full power, which will weaken the market position of users and promote the development of the retail market. Third, standardize the withdrawal mechanism of users. Users who enter the market are not allowed to withdraw at will, and delisted users will accept high electricity prices

promote the transition from the existing power generation plan to the priority power generation plan. The power generation plan in the transition period is divided into three categories: the guaranteed volume and guaranteed price part (corresponding to the base electricity and the first priority power generation plan), the guaranteed volume and non guaranteed price part (corresponding to the second priority power generation plan) and the market-oriented part. During the transition period, the base electricity will be gradually reduced until cancelled, and the corresponding power generation plan will evolve into a priority power generation plan. The division proportion of the first and second categories of priority power generation is determined by various regions

some characteristics of market-oriented transactions in the transition period

market-oriented transactions have been carried out in 27 provinces across the country. All regions are generally active in "releasing plans", but the progress in "building markets" is uneven. A few provinces such as Guangdong are more proactive in establishing market-oriented mechanisms. When the power generation and utilization plan is liberalized to a certain proportion, a forced mechanism will be formed to promote the improvement of the market mechanism; Otherwise, the plan will not be further liberalized. From this point of view, the situation in Guangdong and other places has a good reference value for studying and judging the nationwide market-oriented trend

the rapid development of power sales business

after the full power of users enters the market, they generally do not have the professional capabilities of power consumption management, contract deviation control, market bidding and so on, and have lost the comprehensive guarantee of catalog electricity price. In order to avoid the risk of deviation assessment and price fluctuation, the vast majority of users no longer choose to directly enter the wholesale market to trade with power generation enterprises, but "purchase" power through power sales companies, which will promote the rapid development of power sales business

this trend is reflected in Guangdong. In all the seven monthly bidding transactions in 2016 (the old market rule, that is, partial power entry of users + no deviation assessment), the proportion of large users' self purchase of electricity and the purchase of electricity by power selling companies was about 37 times (the proportion of electricity was 28.63% and 71.37% respectively). In the 2017 bidding transactions carried out in accordance with the new rules, 97% of the electricity was completed by power selling companies

power selling enterprises accelerate the professional transformation

power selling enterprises participate in the wholesale market bidding on behalf of users, and also undertake the market risks of users. This requires power selling enterprises to effectively control the deviation of contract execution through load forecasting, combination and adjustment; Otherwise, it will face huge deviation assessment. Among the 92 power selling companies that participated in the monthly transactions in Guangdong in February this year, 77 were assessed for deviation, and the total cost of deviation assessment was 62 million yuan. The monthly loss of the power selling enterprise that was most affected by the assessment was as high as 14.52 million yuan

this market situation requires power selling enterprises to accelerate the transformation of the business model of "one low and two none" (low cost, no technical content, no social benefits) and simple "price difference", establish the concept of creating value for users, improve the professional service ability of "demand forecasting and analysis, contract optimization and combination, load integration and control, energy efficiency management improvement" for users, and realize "valuable" business benefits through demand side value-added services

the market pattern and interest flow will change

the change and transformation of power sales business and power sales enterprises will promote the change of market pattern: from the game between power generation enterprises and large users in the pilot stage to the game between power generation enterprises and power sales companies in the wholesale market, and the competition between power sales enterprises in the retail market. The above are the two most common operation competitions about touch buttons. Compared with users, power selling companies have stronger bidding professional ability, and the market pressure of power generation enterprises is greater. In the pilot stage, the benefit flow of the market is that power generation enterprises make a substantial profit to users. In the transitional stage, due to the weakening market position of users, the profits of power generation enterprises will mainly flow to a small number of power sales enterprises that can obtain a dominant position in the wholesale and retail markets; Users' price reduction in the retail market is less than the profitability in the wholesale market in the pilot stage

in 2016, the unit price difference of Guangdong's annual transactions was -11.1% per kWh. In 2017, this price difference expanded to -64.0% per kWh. Compared with 2016, the transaction price difference of monthly transactions in 2017 also showed an upward trend. According to the statistical analysis of the quotation behavior of various entities by Guangzhou Trading Center, most users have adopted a conservative strategy of following the market price, and the power selling companies occupy a dominant position in the bidding

several issues that power generation enterprises need to pay attention to

market risk prevention and control. During the transition period, power generation enterprises face the risks of user arrears, low contract performance rate, limited safety verification, deviation assessment and so on. Among them, the limited safety verification needs to be highly concerned. Under the traditional planning mode, the utilization hours of generator units are basically the same, and the system power flow is relatively balanced; After the expansion of market-oriented transaction scale, the trend uncertainty and imbalance increase, and the channel restriction is more common. Power generation enterprise implementation